Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Christopher Warner, and I'm a healthcare professional from Florida. I'm writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've always had a knack for predicting future events, often seeing outcomes more clearly than others around me, and I've dabbled in prediction markets a few times to test my instincts. I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets, and I want to share why I think theyre valuable, both for me personally and for society.
In my line of work, I see how uncertainty about public events, like elections or policy changes, can impact healthcare delivery and costs. Prediction markets have given me a unique window into what might happen, often with more accuracy than polls or TV pundits. I've noticed their forecasts cut through the noise and provide real insights, which helps not just me but could help the public and decision-makers if this information was more widely available. Beyond that, I think these markets are a practical tool for hedging risks. For instance, a small business owner or even someone like me could use them to offset uncertainties tied to policy shifts or economic changes that hit our wallets directly.
I'm not blind to the risks, though. I get that consumer protection is a big concern, and I don't want to see people taken advantage of. But banning or over-restricting prediction markets isn't the answer. If you push these activities offshore to unregulated platforms, you're just making things less safe for everyone. I'd rather see the CFTC set clear, fair rules that keep these markets transparent and accountable right here in the US. Looking at some of the questions in your ANPR, like those in the Public Interest section (Questions 7-14), I believe the balance between innovation and protection can be struck with smart regulation, not heavy-handed bans. And on the topic of price discovery (also in that section), I think prediction markets offer a public good by aggregating information in ways nothing else can.
I've only used these platforms a handful of times, but I can see their potential. They're not gambling, at least not to me. They take thought and research, much like any other investment. Shutting them down or boxing them in too tightly would mean losing a tool that helps regular folks like me make sense of an uncertain world, while also pushing activity to shadier corners of the internet. So, I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep them accessible, safe, and under US oversight, but don't stifle their potential with overly restrictive rules.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Christopher Warner
