Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Carson Lewis, and I'm writing from Arizona to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm a gambler by trade, and I've used platforms like Kalshi a few times to place bets on various events. I see it as a gambling app, plain and simple, and I know many of my friends here use Kalshi and even Polymarket for the same reason. I'm writing because I believe regulated prediction markets like Kalshi are a safer bet than the unregulated offshore platforms out there, and I hope my perspective as a user helps shed light on how people are actually engaging with these markets.
I'll be upfront, I like gambling, and prediction markets let me wager on just about anything, from elections to economic data. I've made some money doing it, which is a nice bonus. But what I really value is that a platform like Kalshi operates under rules and oversight. It's not some shady offshore site where you don't know if you'll ever see your winnings. My friends and I have talked about this a lot, if you crack down too hard or ban these markets, people aren't going to stop gambling. They'll just move to unregulated platforms that are riskier and harder to track. I think keeping these markets regulated in the U.S. is the smarter move for everyone.
I also see how prediction markets can provide better information for public decision-making. The prices on these platforms often seem to cut through the noise of polls or talking heads on TV. They're not perfect, but they give a clearer picture of what people really think is going to happen. That's useful, not just for gamblers like me, but for anyone trying to make sense of the world. I think this ties into some of the questions you asked in the ANPR, like Question 8 about price discovery and Question 9 on balancing innovation with consumer protection. My take is that regulated markets help with both, they let us innovate while keeping things safer than the alternative.
I'm not saying there aren't risks. I know some folks worry about manipulation or people using inside info. But aren't those things already illegal? Seems to me the CFTC has tools to handle bad actors without shutting down the whole show. Don't punish users like me who are just enjoying a platform and maybe making a little cash on the side.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep platforms like Kalshi operating under clear rules, and don't push activity offshore by over-restricting or banning them. Thanks for taking the time to read my thoughts.
Sincerely,
Carson Lewis
