Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mody Abraham, and I'm a trader and investor based in Tennessee . I'm writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I believe these markets provide real value, both to me personally and to society at large.
As a trader, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets often produce forecasts that are more accurate than polls or pundits. Whether it's an election outcome or an economic indicator, the prices on these platforms cut through the noise and give a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. This isn't just helpful for those of us trading; it's valuable information for everyone, from journalists to regular folks trying to make sense of the world. I also appreciate the freedom to participate in these legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are a safer and more transparent option compared to unregulated offshore alternatives. If we push these markets underground with overly strict rules, people like me will lose access to safe venues, and that doesn't protect anyone.
I'm also a big believer in the idea that informed trading improves price discovery. When people with knowledge put their money where their mouth is, the market prices get sharper, and that benefits all participants, not just the insiders. I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But the CFTC already has tools to tackle those issues, and banning or over-restricting these markets punishes honest traders like me instead of the bad actors. Plus, academic research backs up the value of these markets. Studies I've read show they aggregate information efficiently, and I'd love to see the CFTC encourage more data transparency so we can keep learning from how these markets work.
On a personal note, I also enjoy using Kalshi for sports betting. It's honestly the best app out there with the best prices, and it's a fun way to engage with something I care about while still being in a regulated space. This ties into a couple of your specific questions, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and Question 29 on whether informed traders help price discovery. I think the answer is clear: regulated markets like Kalshi protect consumers better than offshore platforms, and informed trading makes the market smarter for everyone.
I urge you to support well-regulated prediction markets with targeted rules that address real risks without shutting down access for everyday traders like me. Let's keep the US at the forefront of financial innovation and ensure these markets remain safe and accessible.
Sincerely,
Mody Abraham
