Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Eduardo Peralta, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Nevada writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have real value, both for me personally and for society. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets with fair, targeted rules instead of broad bans or heavy restrictions.
Living in Nevada, I'm surrounded by a culture of betting, and I get why some folks might look at prediction markets and think it's just another form of gambling. But I see it differently. When I've traded on platforms like Kalshi, I'm not just tossing money at a game of chance. I'm researching, thinking hard about real-world events, and making decisions based on what I learn. It's given me better insight into things like election outcomes or economic trends, information I can't always get from news or polls. I think this kind of price discovery helps everyone, not just traders, by providing clearer signals about what might happen in the world. It's a public good, in my view.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like these. Shutting them down or over-restricting them doesn't make sense to me, especially when the CFTC already has strong tools to stop manipulation and insider trading. Use those tools. Don't punish regular people like me by banning whole categories of contracts. And honestly, if you push too hard with restrictions, you're just going to drive activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are way less safe than a CFTC-registered market like Kalshi. I'd rather keep things here, under your oversight, where there's accountability.
On that note, I can't help but think some of the pushback against prediction markets comes from folks in Vegas who want a monopoly on anything even close to betting. I'm not saying they're wrong to protect their business, but let's not let that stop innovation. The US should be leading the way in financial tools like prediction markets, not falling behind other countries. I'm particularly interested in your questions 7 and 8 from the ANPR about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I think you can do both with proportionate rules that tackle specific risks, like manipulation, without throwing out the whole idea of event contracts.
I'm asking you to support prediction markets with smart, targeted regulation. Don't let broad bans or overly tight rules kill a useful tool for regular people like me. Keep these markets safe and accessible under your watch.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Eduardo Peralta
