Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Andy Ochoa, and I'm an everyday citizen from California who actively trades on prediction markets like Kalshi. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to craft rules that protect consumers without stifling innovation or pushing activity offshore.
I've been trading on Kalshi for a while now, and I can tell you firsthand that these markets offer insights you can't get from polls or pundits. I've seen election forecasts and economic predictions on the platform that turned out to be far more accurate than what I read in the news. This isn't just useful for traders; it helps everyone by making better information available. I also think of it as a way for regular folks like me to have a stake in understanding what's happening in the world. It's not gambling, either. Trading on these platforms takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" would be a mistake when they serve real economic purposes like hedging and price discovery.
I'm also worried about what happens if these markets get over-restricted or banned. I've looked at offshore platforms before, and they're nowhere near as safe or transparent as a regulated market like Kalshi. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, people will just go to those unregulated sites, and that'll be worse for consumer protection. The U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries. Ive read academic studies, like those by economists such as Justin Wolfers, showing how prediction markets improve information aggregation. We shouldn't ignore that data.
Regarding some of your specific questions, like those in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe the CFTC should balance innovation with protection by focusing on targeted rules, not broad bans. And on Topic C about listed activities (Questions 15-22), event contracts shouldn't be lumped in with gaming; theyre a legitimate tool for many of us. Also, addressing Topic E on inside information (Questions 29-32), I think informed trading actually helps make prices more accurate, benefiting all participants, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible to everyday people while addressing specific risks with focused rules. Let's keep these markets safe, transparent, and American-led. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Andy Ochoa
