Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Braidyn Kinzer, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Kentucky writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. They've made a real difference in my life, and I believe they can benefit society if handled the right way.
A few years back, I was in a deep financial hole, struggling to pay rent and get by. Trading on prediction markets changed that for me. It's not about guessing or gambling; it's about doing research, weighing probabilities, and making informed decisions. If I think my odds have shifted, I can exit a trade anytime. That control, based on my own judgment, helped me turn things around financially. Beyond my personal story, I see the bigger value in these markets. They provide forecasts on elections and public events that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. That kind of information helps everyone, not just traders, make better decisions.
I want to address a few specific points from your ANPR. On the topic of public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe prediction markets are a powerful tool for price discovery and innovation. The U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not letting other countries take the lead. Banning or over-restricting these markets would just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe than a regulated market like Kalshi. Consumer protection comes from smart regulation, not prohibition. As for whether event contracts are gaming (Questions 15-22), I dont see them that way at all. They serve real economic purposes, like hedging risks or aggregating information, much like other investments. Calling them gambling feels like a misstep when they require the same research and judgment as trading stocks.
I also think informed trading helps everyone by improving price discovery (Questions 29-32). Yes, there are risks like insider trading or manipulation, but the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues in other markets. Use those tools here instead of broad bans. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few bad actors would hurt regular folks like me who rely on them legally and responsibly.
I'm not blind to the concerns, but the answer isn't to over-restrict. I urge you to support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible on regulated platforms, ensures transparency, and leverages the academic research showing their value in forecasting. Let's keep this innovation alive in the U.S. and protect consumers through oversight, not by driving activity offshore.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Braidyn Kinzer
