Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Chris Lopez, and I'm a regular citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe that well-regulated prediction markets offer real value to people like me and to society as a whole. I want to urge the CFTC to support these markets with fair, proportionate rules instead of heavy restrictions or bans.
As someone who runs a small business here in Texas, I use prediction markets to hedge against risks that hit my bottom line. For instance, I've traded contracts tied to election outcomes because policy changes can directly affect my taxes and costs. I've also used markets tied to economic data releases, like CPI numbers, to get a sense of where inflation might go and plan my budget. These aren't just bets; they're tools that help me make smarter decisions. Beyond my own needs, I've seen how prediction markets often forecast events like elections more accurately than polls or TV pundits. That kind of information isn't just useful to traders, it helps everyone, from voters to policymakers, understand what's really going on.
I'm also a firm believer in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are a safe space to trade. If you over-restrict or ban these markets, people won't stop trading, they'll just move to unregulated offshore sites where there's no protection at all. That seems like the wrong direction. Plus, the US should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead because we're too cautious.
I want to touch on a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the answer is clear: regulate with targeted rules, don't ban entire categories. Focus on specific risks like manipulation, which you already have tools to address. And on Question 29, regarding inside information, I believe informed trading actually helps price discovery. When people bring real knowledge to the market, the prices get more accurate, and that benefits everyone. Punishing bad actors makes sense, but shutting down markets to stop a few cheaters hurts the rest of us.
I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow prediction markets to thrive under fair oversight. They're a powerful tool for forecasting, hedging, and democratizing information. Please don't over-restrict or ban them; instead, focus on proportionate regulation that addresses real risks without stifling innovation.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Chris Lopez
