Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Quamarey Johnson, and I'm a trader and investor based in Indiana. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will regulate them in a way that allows them to thrive.
As someone who trades regularly, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets offer information you just can't get elsewhere. Whether it's an election outcome or a major public event, the prices on these platforms often predict results more accurately than polls or pundits. I rely on that data to make informed decisions, not just for trading but for understanding the world. It's not just about me, though. That kind of insight helps everyone, from regular folks to businesses trying to plan ahead. I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi. Shutting out everyday traders like me would mean only big institutions get access to this information, and that doesn't seem fair. Plus, it would make the market prices less accurate without diverse input.
I want to address a few specific concerns tied to the CFTC's questions in the ANPR. On the topic of public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe prediction markets serve a legitimate economic purpose through forecasting and price discovery, not gambling. Trading on these platforms takes research and judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. Labeling them as "gaming" (as raised in Questions 15-22) misses the point of their value. As for manipulation or insider trading worries (Questions 29-32), I get that those are real risks. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle fraud and manipulation in other markets. Use those tools here instead of banning or over-restricting event contracts. Banning entire markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone for something most of us aren't doing.
Finally, on the issue of classification and costs (Questions 33-40), I urge the CFTC to consider the importance of U.S. competitiveness in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or push these markets offshore, we lose the chance to lead in this space. I've traded on regulated platforms, and I can tell you they feel safer and more transparent than any offshore alternative would. Let's keep that innovation here under your oversight.
I respectfully ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or overly restrict them. Focus on targeted rules to address specific risks while letting these valuable tools continue to grow for traders like me and for the public good.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Quamarey Johnson
