Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Nicholas Long, and I'm a student from California. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Ive been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I want to explain why I think these markets are valuable and why the CFTC should focus on proportionate regulation instead of heavy restrictions or bans.
As a student, I find prediction markets fascinating because they let me engage with real-world events in a unique way. Ive used Kalshi to make predictions on things like election outcomes and economic indicators, and I love the freedom to participate in a market thats regulated and transparent. Its not just about placing bets; its about researching, thinking critically, and testing my understanding of complex issues. This isnt gambling to me. It takes the same kind of analysis I use in my studies, much like someone might approach stock trading. I believe this kind of access is a good thing for regular people like me, not just big institutions. It democratizes information and lets everyday folks contribute to price discovery, which benefits everyone.
One of my biggest concerns is that overly strict rules could push prediction markets to unregulated offshore platforms. I feel much safer trading on a CFTC-regulated platform like Kalshi, where there are clear rules and oversight. If the U.S. cracks down too hard, people will just turn to sketchy foreign sites with no protections. That seems like a step backward. I also think the U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldnt let other countries take the lead on something that could be a powerful tool for forecasting and risk management. Regulating these markets sensibly keeps the activity here, under your watch, and helps maintain U.S. competitiveness.
I noticed some of the questions in the ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation with consumer protection and Question 14 on public interest considerations. To me, the answer lies in targeted rules that address real risks, like manipulation or insider trading, without shutting down the whole market. You already have tools to tackle those issues in other derivatives markets. Why not adapt them here? Banning or over-restricting prediction markets punishes people like me who use them responsibly and cuts off the benefits they bring to society.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to everyday traders under clear, fair rules. Dont let fear of a few bad actors take away a valuable tool for so many of us, and dont push this innovation offshore. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Nicholas Long
