Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jacob Estrada, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Texas trying to make a living. I'm writing to you about the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I want to share why I support well-regulated prediction markets and why I think the CFTC should too.
I've tried other ways to invest or even bet, but Kalshi stands out. It's safer, more transparent, and honestly, I learn a lot more about the world through trading there than I ever did elsewhere. Prediction markets give me insights into elections and public events that I can't find in the news or polls. The accuracy of these forecasts helps me make better decisions, not just for trading but for understanding what's happening around me. And I know I'm not alone in valuing this. These markets aren't just for big shots; they let regular folks like me have a say and a stake.
I also see real economic value here. I've used prediction markets to hedge risks that affect my wallet, like election outcomes that could change taxes or policies impacting my costs. This isn't gambling. It takes research and judgment, just like any other investment. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels wrong when they serve legitimate purposes like price discovery and risk management. I urge you to consider this in your response to Questions 15-22 on listed activities.
I'm worried that banning or over-restricting these markets will push people like me to unregulated offshore platforms. Those places are far riskier, with no oversight. Kalshi, on the other hand, is regulated by the CFTC, and that makes me feel safer. Please think about this when addressing Questions 7-14 on public interest. Proportionate rules that target specific issues, like manipulation or insider trading, make more sense than broad bans. The CFTC already has tools to handle bad actors, so use those instead of shutting down the whole market.
Another thing that gets me is the idea of the US falling behind. We should be leading in financial innovation, not letting other countries take over. If we over-regulate, we're just handing the future of these markets to someone else. I also know there's solid academic research backing prediction markets for their transparency and forecasting power. This isn't just my opinion; it's backed by data. I hope you'll look at this in relation to Questions 33-40 on classification and costs-benefits.
Please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Let regular folks like me keep participating in safe, regulated spaces that help us understand and manage the uncertainties of the world.
Sincerely,
Jacob Estrada
