Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Hayden Montgomery, and I'm a student from Texas. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe that well-regulated prediction markets are valuable and worth supporting. I appreciate the chance to comment on this issue.
As a student, I spend a lot of time studying and analyzing information, and prediction markets give me a unique way to apply that skill. Trading on Kalshi isn't just a hobby, it's a way to engage with real-world events, from elections to economic data releases. The prices on these markets often tell me things I can't find in news articles or polls. They're a source of insight that feels more grounded than a lot of the speculation I see elsewhere. I think this kind of information benefits everyone, not just traders like me.
What I care most about is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, provide a safe and transparent space for people like me to trade. I've looked into some offshore, unregulated platforms out of curiosity, and they feel sketchy by comparison. There's no accountability, no clear rules, and I wouldn't trust them with my money. If prediction markets get over-regulated or banned in the U.S., I worry that activity will just shift to those less safe venues. That doesn't protect anyone, it just pushes the problem out of sight. Regulated markets are the better option, hands down.
I'd like to address a couple of the specific questions in your ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I believe regulated markets already strike that balance. Kalshi has clear rules and safeguards that make me feel secure as a trader. And on Question 15, regarding what activities should be listed or restricted, I urge you not to paint these markets with too broad a brush. They're not gambling, they're a form of analysis and risk management. Categorically banning certain topics or contracts would limit the usefulness of these markets without really solving any underlying issues.
I understand there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation. Those are real risks, but the CFTC already has tools to address them. Punishing all traders by restricting or banning prediction markets isn't the answer. Instead, focus on enforcing existing laws and tailoring regulations to specific risks.
In closing, I ask that you support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or overly restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to regular people like me, under a framework that ensures safety and transparency. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Hayden Montgomery
