Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Andrew Hamerly, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone whos a bit of a data nerd, I see these markets as a unique way to turn knowledge, research, and a good grasp of statistics into something tangible. Whether its politics, sports, or other public events, prediction markets let people like me capitalize on what we know or are willing to dig into.
I firmly believe event contracts are not gambling. Theyre not about luck; theyre about analysis and judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. Ive used platforms like Kalshi to make informed trades on election outcomes and other events, and the process requires just as much thought and research as any other investment. Beyond that, the forecasting power of these markets is incredible. Ive seen firsthand how their price signals often predict outcomes more accurately than polls or pundits. That kind of information benefits everyone, not just traders. Its a public good.
Im also a big believer in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets give regular people like me a chance to engage with real-world events in a meaningful way. Banning or over-restricting them would just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which helps no one. The U.S. should be leading the charge on financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries. Weve got the chance to set the standard here.
Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a few points. On Questions 7-14 about public interest, I think the CFTC should prioritize innovation while protecting consumers through targeted rules, not broad bans. Proportionate regulation is key. As for Questions 29-32 on inside information, I believe informed trading actually improves price discovery. The more knowledgeable participants there are, the better the market reflects reality. Existing laws already prohibit insider trading by federal officials and others with nonpublic info, so lets enforce those rather than punishing everyone by shutting down markets.
Im asking the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks like manipulation or insider trading without resorting to categorical prohibitions. Prediction markets have real economic value, and with the right oversight, they can thrive while protecting participants. Lets keep the U.S. at the forefront of this space.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Andrew Hamerly
