Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Skylar Sarpy, and I'm an everyday citizen from Washington state writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow these markets to thrive without unnecessary restrictions.
I first got into prediction markets because I wanted better information about elections and major public events. Polls and pundits often get it wrong, but the prices on these markets consistently seem to cut through the noise. That accuracy isn't just helpful for traders; it benefits everyone who wants a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. Beyond forecasting, I value the freedom to participate in a legal, regulated space. Trading on these platforms isn't gambling. It takes research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. Classifying event contracts as gaming, as discussed in Questions 15-22, misses the point. These contracts serve real economic purposes, like helping people hedge risks. For instance, I've used markets to offset uncertainties around policy changes that could affect my personal finances.
I'm also worried that banning or over-restricting prediction markets will just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, as hinted at in Questions 7-14 about public interest. That would be worse for consumer protection, not better. The U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation, not cede that role to other countries. We have the chance to set a global standard with smart regulation. Plus, academic research, which I follow closely, shows how informed trading improves price discovery for everyone in the market, a point raised in Questions 29-32 about inside information. Rather than banning markets to stop a few bad actors, the CFTC should use its existing tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading.
I understand there are concerns about risks, and I appreciate the CFTC looking into them. But shutting down or overly limiting these markets punishes regular people like me who use them responsibly. I urge you to focus on proportionate rules that address specific issues without broad bans. Prediction markets aren't just a niche hobby; they help individuals and businesses manage real-world uncertainties. Please support their growth under a fair regulatory framework.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Skylar Sarpy
