Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Suzy Antonian, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support their continued operation under fair and balanced regulation. I believe these markets provide unique value, especially for forecasting elections and public events, and I want to weigh in on why they matter to me and others.
As someone who trades and invests regularly, Ive come to appreciate how prediction markets offer insights you just cant find elsewhere. Ive placed bets on election outcomes, for instance, and found the market prices often cut through the noise of polls and pundits. Back in 2020, I remember checking a prediction market on the presidential race and seeing odds that contradicted what most news outlets were saying. The market turned out to be right, and it helped me make sense of a confusing time. That kind of accuracy isnt just helpful for traders like me, its valuable for anyone trying to understand whats really going on. I think informed trading, where people bring their knowledge and research to the table, actually improves price discovery and makes the markets predictions sharper. Everyone benefits from that, not just the participants.
I know there are concerns about insider trading or manipulation in these markets, and I get why thats a worry. But banning or over-restricting prediction markets isnt the answer. The CFTC already has rules and tools to tackle bad actors, and those should be enforced rather than punishing the rest of us who use these platforms responsibly. Shutting down markets because of a few potential cheaters feels like overkill, kind of like closing a highway because some people speed.
Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address Question 29 on inside information. I believe informed traders, as long as theyre not breaking laws with nonpublic info, actually help make prices more accurate. Their knowledge adds to the collective wisdom of the market, which is the whole point. On Question 7 about public interest, Id argue that the benefit of better forecasting for events like elections outweighs the risks, as long as theres oversight to prevent abuse.
One small side note, though. Id love to see the CFTC consider ways to make these markets even more engaging, like adding rescue options for bets where you could pull out early if things look bad. Also, including player props or performance-based events with proper risk assessment (PRA) could draw more interest without compromising integrity. Just a thought from someone whos in the trading space.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Lets keep this tool available for people like me who value the information they provide, while ensuring the rules keep things fair and safe.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Suzy Antonian
