Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Kenneth Horn, and I'm a business owner from Texas. I run a small logistics company here, dealing with supply chain challenges daily, and I've found prediction markets to be a valuable tool for my personal and professional decision-making. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the CFTC crafting proportionate regulations for these markets rather than imposing heavy-handed restrictions or bans.
I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a couple of years now. As a business owner, I use these event contracts to hedge against uncertainties that directly impact my company, like potential changes in trade policies or fuel price spikes tied to geopolitical events. This isn't gambling, not by a long shot. It takes research and real-world judgment, much like any other investment I make for my business. These markets help me manage risks in ways that traditional financial tools sometimes can't touch. Plus, the forecasts they produce are often more accurate than polls or pundits. I've seen firsthand how the aggregated wisdom of traders on platforms like Kalshi beats out so-called expert predictions, and that information helps me plan better for my business.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If you over-restrict or ban these markets, you're not protecting people like me; you're pushing activity to shadier venues with no accountability. That's a step backward. And let's be clear, informed trading isn't a problem, it's a benefit. When people with real knowledge trade, it improves price discovery for everyone. Banning or overly restricting that punishes regular folks and small businesses who rely on this data.
I'd like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 8, regarding whether prediction markets serve the public interest, I say absolutely yes. They provide unique insights and risk management tools that benefit not just traders but anyone who uses the data, from businesses to policymakers. On Question 15, about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I urge you to recognize that event contracts serve real economic purposes like hedging and price discovery, distinct from gambling. Treating them as mere games would be a mistake.
I understand concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to address those issues. Use them, don't shut down entire markets because of a few bad actors. I ask that you support proportionate regulation of prediction markets, allowing platforms like Kalshi to operate while ensuring oversight keeps things fair. Let's keep the U.S. at the forefront of financial innovation and protect the ability of everyday people and small businesses to benefit from these tools.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Kenneth Horn
