Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mohammad Gharaibeh, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States, and I appreciate the chance to weigh in on this issue.
I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, a CFTC-registered market, and I've seen firsthand how valuable these markets are. They provide information that you just can't find elsewhere. The prices on prediction markets often cut through the noise of polls and pundits, giving a clearer picture of what might happen with elections, economic data, or other major events. This isn't just helpful for traders like me, it's useful for anyone making decisions, whether that's a business owner planning for policy changes or a regular person trying to understand the world. I believe this kind of price discovery benefits society as a whole, and I'd hate to see it stifled by overly restrictive rules.
Another big reason I support these markets is the freedom to participate in a legal, regulated space. I'm not a big institution or a hedge fund, just an individual investor who does my homework and makes informed trades. Prediction markets let people like me have a stake in understanding and forecasting real-world events. Shutting that down or limiting access would only push activity to unregulated, offshore platforms where there's less oversight and more risk. I'd much rather see the CFTC focus on smart regulation that keeps markets fair and open to everyday participants.
I also want to stress that the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or ban prediction markets, we're handing the advantage to other countries who are willing to embrace this technology. I've traded enough to know that innovation drives progress, and I'd hate to see the US fall behind on something with so much potential. Let's set the standard for how these markets should work, not cede that ground to others.
On some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I think Question 7 under Public Interest hits the nail on the head. How do we balance innovation with consumer protection? My view is simple: use the tools you already have to stop manipulation and insider trading, but don't throw out the whole market because of a few bad actors. And for Question 15 on defining legitimate markets versus gaming, Id argue these contracts are about research and judgment, not luck. They're a far cry from gambling.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep them accessible, safe, and innovative under CFTC oversight. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Mohammad Gharaibeh
