Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Andrew Arteaga, and I'm just a regular citizen from Illinois writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have real value for people like me who want better information about elections and other public events. I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of these markets instead of overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
I first got interested in prediction markets during the last election cycle. I was tired of sifting through biased news and unreliable polls, so I turned to a platform to see what the crowd thought. The prices on those markets gave me a clearer picture than anything else, often predicting outcomes better than so-called experts. I think this kind of forecasting is a public good, not just for traders but for anyone who wants to understand what's likely to happen. When people trade based on real knowledge, it sharpens the accuracy of the market's predictions. This isn't gambling, it's a way to pool information that benefits everyone.
I'm also concerned about where people go if these markets get shut down. Right now, regulated platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight, which gives me some confidence that there's accountability. If you make it too hard for these markets to exist in the U.S., people will just turn to unregulated offshore sites with no protections at all. I've seen friends dabble in those spaces, and it's a mess. I'd much rather see the CFTC set clear, fair rules to keep activity on safe, domestic platforms.
Looking at some of the questions in your ANPR, I want to address a couple that hit home for me. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think prediction markets are innovative because they give regular folks access to information that used to be locked up with big players. Protection matters, but don't let it kill the whole idea. And on Question 29, about informed trading, I believe traders with good information make prices more accurate, which helps everyone. The CFTC already has tools to handle insider trading or manipulation, so use those instead of broad restrictions.
I get that there are risks, like people trying to game the system. But banning or over-restricting prediction markets punishes the majority of us who use them honestly. Please focus on targeted rules to address bad actors while letting these markets grow. Theyre a unique tool for forecasting, and with the right oversight, they can thrive safely.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Andrew Arteaga
