Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Shane Cease, and I'm just a regular citizen from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe well-regulated prediction markets offer real value to people like me and to society as a whole. I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of these markets rather than imposing heavy restrictions or outright bans.
I got into prediction markets because I wanted better information about events that affect my life, like elections or economic indicators. The prices on these platforms often tell me more than any news pundit or poll can. They're not just for traders; they help everyone by making clearer what might happen next. I also use them to hedge risks that hit close to home. For instance, Ive placed trades to offset uncertainty around policies that could impact my taxes or costs as a consumer. This isn't gambling to me. It takes research and judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels wrong when they serve real economic purposes like price discovery and risk management.
I'm also a firm believer in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are so much safer than unregulated offshore sites. If you restrict these markets too much, people will just go to less safe places, and that helps no one. Plus, the U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation. Why let other countries take the lead on something this useful? And let's not forget, informed trading actually makes prices more accurate, which benefits everyone, not just those of us in the market.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues in other markets. Use those same tools here instead of broad bans that punish regular folks like me. I'm particularly drawn to your questions 7 and 15 in the ANPR, about balancing innovation with consumer protection and defining what counts as gaming. I urge you to focus on targeted rules for specific risks rather than sweeping categorical limits.
Prediction markets matter to people like me who want a stake in understanding and preparing for the future. Please regulate them in a way thats fair and proportionate, keeping access open for everyday citizens while addressing real concerns with the tools you already have.
Sincerely,
Shane Cease
