Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Luis Mora, and I'm a sports fan from California who actively trades on prediction markets like Kalshi. I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide valuable information, offer a fair chance for regular folks like me to participate, and deserve thoughtful regulation rather than heavy-handed restrictions.
As someone who loves sports, I know the value of a good prediction. I've seen firsthand how prediction markets often get things right when polls and pundits fall short. Whether it's forecasting election outcomes or economic trends, the prices on these platforms give insights you just can't find elsewhere. I use this information to stay informed about the world around me, and I think it helps everyone, not just traders, make better decisions. This ties directly to your questions in Topic Area B about public interest and price discovery (Questions 7-10). I believe the CFTC should recognize how prediction markets contribute to better information for society.
I also want to stress that participating in these markets isn't gambling, no matter what some might say. When I trade on Kalshi, I'm putting in time to research and think through real-world events. It's a skill, just like picking stocks. These event contracts have real economic purpose, whether it's understanding risks or just getting a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. I urge you to consider this in Topic Area C (Questions 15-17) when defining what counts as gaming versus legitimate markets. Let's not label something as a game when it's clearly more than that.
Another big reason I support regulated markets is safety. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, give me confidence that my trades are fair and transparent. If you crack down too hard or ban these markets, people will just turn to unregulated offshore sites where there's no protection at all. That seems like a step backward. And honestly, I think the US should be leading the way on financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead while we drag our feet. These points connect to your questions in Topic Area B (Question 11) on balancing innovation with consumer protection.
I'm not blind to the risks. I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading. But the CFTC already has rules and tools to handle those issues. Use them, don't punish everyone by shutting down something useful. I hope you'll craft rules that keep prediction markets accessible to regular people like me while addressing specific problems with targeted solutions.
Thank you for considering my views. I strongly encourage the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets and avoid bans or overly restrictive policies.
Sincerely,
Luis Mora
