Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jose Furman, and I'm a trader and investor based in Georgia. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing to share my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets are valuable for individuals like me, for the public, and for the United States as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to adopt a balanced approach to their regulation.
As a trader, I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi. These platforms provide unique information through price discovery that I can't find anywhere else, whether it's about election outcomes, economic data, or other events that impact my investments. This isn't just useful for me; the aggregated forecasts from prediction markets often beat polls or pundits, offering better insights for everyone, from regular folks to policymakers. I also see this as a matter of fairness. If only big institutions can access these markets, the valuable information stays with them. Letting everyday traders like me participate makes the system more democratic and the prices more accurate.
I want to address a few specific concerns from your ANPR, particularly around classification and public interest. On Questions 15-22 about whether event contracts are "gaming," I strongly believe they are not. Trading on these markets requires research and judgment about real-world events, much like trading stocks or commodities. These contracts serve legitimate economic purposes, like hedging against uncertainties that affect my financial planning. Labeling them as gambling would be a misstep. On Questions 7-14 regarding public interest, I think regulated prediction markets clearly benefit society by improving information and supporting innovation. But I also recognize the need for safeguards. The answer isn't broad bans or over-restrictions, but targeted rules to address specific risks like manipulation, which the CFTC already has tools to handle.
I'm also worried about the consequences of over-restricting these markets. Banning or heavily limiting prediction markets won't stop trading; it will just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe for participants like me. The US has a chance to lead in financial innovation, and I believe prediction markets are the future. We shouldn't cede this industry to other countries. Proportionate regulation, as discussed in Questions 33-40, is the right path. And on Questions 29-32 about insider trading, I think informed trading actually improves price discovery, benefiting all of us, as long as existing laws against misuse of nonpublic information are enforced.
I urge the CFTC to support the growth of prediction markets with fair, targeted regulations rather than restrictive policies that could harm this critical industry. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Jose Furman
