Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Damien Stowers, and I'm just an everyday citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I appreciate the chance to weigh in on this.
I believe prediction markets are valuable, not just for me, but for society as a whole. I've seen firsthand how the prices on these platforms often predict outcomes more accurately than polls or TV pundits. That kind of information is useful to everyone, whether you're trading or not. It's not gambling, either. When I trade on Kalshi, I'm researching, reading news, and making judgments about real-world events. It feels a lot like investing in stocks, not rolling dice. These event contracts have real economic purposes, like helping people hedge against uncertainty. I think the CFTC should recognize that and avoid classifying them as "gaming" under questions 15-22 in your notice.
Another thing that matters to me is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If you ban or over-restrict prediction markets, you're not stopping the activity, you're just pushing people like me to less secure, foreign sites with no consumer protections. I've read about academic research, like studies from economists such as Hanson and Wolfers, showing how these markets aggregate information efficiently. That data transparency benefits everyone. Why would we drive that innovation offshore? I think the US should lead in financial innovation, not cede ground to other countries. This ties directly to questions 7-14 on balancing innovation and public interest in your ANPR.
I get that there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I'm all for consumer protection. But the CFTC already has tools to address those risks, and regulated markets are the best way to keep things safe. Shutting down or overly restricting these platforms doesn't solve the problem, it makes it worse by sending activity to places with no oversight. I'd urge you to focus on proportionate rules that tackle specific issues, not broad bans.
In short, I ask you to support well-regulated prediction markets that allow everyday people like me to participate. Don't let over-regulation push this valuable tool offshore or misclassify it as gaming. I'm happy to provide more details on my experiences if it helps. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Damien Stowers
