Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Eli Drake, and I'm just a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I've taken the time to learn about them, and I strongly support their development under fair and sensible regulation by the CFTC.
I believe prediction markets offer something valuable that we don't get elsewhere. They're not just for traders; the information they generate can help everyone make better decisions, whether it's about politics, the economy, or even weather events. As someone who values having a say in things that affect my life, I appreciate that these markets let ordinary people like me participate in a system thats usually reserved for big institutions. This isnt gambling, no matter what some might say. It takes real research and judgment to trade on these platforms, just like investing in stocks. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels wrong when they serve legitimate purposes, like helping people and businesses hedge against real risks. For example, a small business owner could use these markets to protect against policy changes, or someone like me could hedge against economic shifts that hit my wallet.
I also worry about what happens if we over-restrict or ban these markets. I've read about platforms like Kalshi, which are regulated by the CFTC, and that seems a lot safer than pushing activity to unregulated offshore sites where theres no oversight. If the US shuts this down, people wont stop trading; theyll just go where rules dont apply, and thats worse for everyone. The US should be leading on financial innovation, not handing the advantage to other countries.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But aren't those already illegal? From what I understand, the CFTC has strong tools to tackle bad actors in other markets, and those same tools can work here. Banning entire markets to stop a few cheaters feels like punishing the rest of us who just want a fair shot. In response to some of your questions, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-14), Id urge you to balance innovation with protection by focusing on strong oversight, not outright restrictions. And on Topic Area C (Questions 15-22), I hope youll define event contracts based on their economic value, not as gaming.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep them legal and accessible under clear rules that protect consumers without stifling opportunity. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Eli Drake
