Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
I am writing to you as the Honorable Daniel P. Bowen, Ambassador and Colonel, a policy and government professional from Alaska, regarding the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets and urge the CFTC to craft rules that encourage innovation while addressing legitimate risks. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I have seen firsthand the value these markets provide, and I believe they serve a critical role in public life.
Prediction markets are not just a niche financial tool; they offer insights that benefit everyone. I've relied on platforms like Kalshi to gauge election outcomes and other public events, and time and again, their forecasts have proven more accurate than traditional polls or pundit opinions. This isn't just helpful for traders like me. It provides better information for public decision-making and price discovery, something that policymakers and citizens alike can use to navigate uncertainty. I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. These platforms democratize access to information, allowing regular people, not just big institutions, to engage with and contribute to the market's insights.
Beyond forecasting, prediction markets offer real economic utility. I've used them to hedge risks tied to political and economic events that could impact my work and community here in Alaska, where policy shifts can hit hard. Whether it's an election result affecting tax policy or a regulatory change impacting local businesses, these markets let individuals and companies manage uncertainty in a way that traditional financial tools often can't match.
I understand the CFTC's concerns about manipulation and insider trading, as raised in questions 1 through 6 and 29 through 32 of the ANPR. Those are valid issues, but the solution isn't to ban or overly restrict prediction markets. The CFTC already has strong tools to combat manipulation and enforce laws against insider trading. Use those. Shutting down or stifling these markets would only push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far riskier for consumers and harder to oversee. I'd much rather see a platform like Kalshi, operating under CFTC supervision, than see traders forced into shadowy corners of the internet. This ties directly to questions 7 through 14 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and I believe regulated markets strike that balance.
I'm asking the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to thrive while tackling specific risks with targeted rules. Don't let over-restriction or outright bans undermine the public good these markets provide. Alaska, like much of the country, benefits from better information and risk management tools, and I believe the US should lead in this space, not cede it to others.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
The Honorable Daniel P. Bowen
