Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Nicholas Knowles, and I'm an everyday citizen from Idaho writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I strongly support their existence under fair, proportionate regulation by the CFTC. I believe these markets provide real value, and I want to explain why I think they should be supported rather than banned or overly restricted.
As someone who follows elections and public events closely, I've found prediction markets to be a unique source of information. The forecasts often seem sharper than what I hear from news pundits or polls. Ive placed a few small trades myself, not to get rich, but to engage with events that matter to me. Its not gambling in my view; its a way to put my money where my research is, just like I might with stocks. More than that, I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. I dont think the government should tell me how I can or cant invest my own money, especially when platforms like Kalshi operate under strict oversight. That regulation is key. It protects people like me far better than unregulated offshore sites, which are the real risk if these markets get banned or choked with red tape.
Im also concerned about consumer protection, which is why I think the CFTC should focus on regulating these markets, not shutting them down. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets wont stop people from trading; itll just push them to sketchy offshore platforms with no oversight. The CFTC already has solid tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other markets. I trust you can adapt those to handle event contracts without throwing the baby out with the bathwater. On that note, Id point to Questions 29-32 in your ANPR about inside information. I believe the existing laws and your current authority are enough to deal with bad actors. Dont punish the rest of us by limiting access.
Lastly, I think the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we clamp down too hard on prediction markets, were just handing the future to other countries wholl welcome this technology. Im not an expert, but as a regular person, I see this as a chance for America to stay ahead. Please dont let fear of a few risks kill something with so much potential.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep them legal and accessible under your oversight, and dont let heavy-handed rules drive activity offshore. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Nicholas Knowles
