Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Robert Goger, and I'm a trader and investor based in New York. I've been active in various financial markets for years, and I've used prediction markets a few times to get a sense of public events and hedge some personal risks. I'm writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets offer real value to people like me, and to society as a whole, if done right.
As a trader, I see prediction markets as a unique tool for getting information that's hard to find elsewhere. I'm not entirely sure they always beat polls or pundits yet, but I'm hopeful they will soon because of their transparency and the way they draw in diverse participants. That potential for accurate forecasting, especially on elections or big public events, could be a game-changer for decision-making, not just for traders but for the public and even policymakers. Plus, these markets let me hedge real financial risks, like how political outcomes might impact my investments or personal finances. It's not gambling, it's a calculated way to manage uncertainty, just like trading stocks or commodities.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Shutting out regular folks like me while letting big institutions dominate would keep all the good information with them. Informed trading, even if it's by people with a lot of knowledge, improves price discovery and makes the market better for everyone. And frankly, I think the U.S. needs to stay competitive in financial innovation. If we over-restrict prediction markets, we risk pushing activity offshore to less safe platforms and losing our edge.
I'm not blind to the risks, though. Manipulation and insider trading are real concerns, but the answer isn't broad bans. It's targeted, proportionate regulation. The CFTC already has tools to tackle bad actors in other markets, and those can be adapted here. I think your questions 7 and 8 on balancing innovation with consumer protection, and question 29 on whether informed traders help price discovery, get to the heart of this. My view is clear: let these markets grow under sensible rules, don't kill them with categorical restrictions.
I've read about academic research supporting prediction markets, like how they aggregate information efficiently. That transparency and data could be huge for public understanding if we nurture these platforms. So I urge you to support regulated prediction markets with rules that address specific risks without punishing the rest of us who use them responsibly.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Robert Goger
