Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is David Wells, and I'm just a regular guy from Idaho who wants to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a financial expert or a big-time investor, just someone whos found value in trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe these markets deserve fair, sensible regulation rather than heavy-handed restrictions.
Ive been actively trading on prediction markets for a while now, and I can tell you theyre not just a hobby, theyre a tool. The forecasts these markets produce are often way more accurate than what you hear from polls or pundits on TV. Ive seen it firsthand, whether its predicting election outcomes or economic indicators. That kind of information isnt just useful to me as a trader, its valuable to everyone, from regular folks like me to policymakers who need better data to make decisions. I think that price discovery is a public good, and I hope the CFTC sees it that way too when considering questions like 7 and 8 from your ANPR about balancing innovation and public interest.
I also care deeply about my freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, give people like me a safe place to engage with these contracts. If you over-restrict or ban these markets, I worry that activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no protection at all. Thats not safer for anyone. Id urge you to think about this when looking at questions 33 to 35 on classification and regulatory costs. Keep these markets here in the US, under your watch, where they can be monitored and made secure.
Another thing that bothers me is the idea of calling event contracts gaming. I dont see it that way. When I trade on Kalshi, Im researching, analyzing, and making judgments about real-world events. Thats not a game, its a legitimate economic activity, just like investing in stocks. These contracts help with price discovery and even hedging risks that affect my life. I hope youll consider this perspective in response to questions 15 and 16 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets.
Finally, I believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldnt let other countries take the lead because were too scared to regulate smartly. Prediction markets are a chance to show what American ingenuity can do if given the right framework. So, Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Let regular people like me keep participating in a safe, regulated space.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
David Wells
