Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jeffery Walden, and I'm a small business owner from New York. Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im relatively new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their existence and believe they should be regulated in a fair and balanced way. As someone running a small business, I see real value in these markets for forecasting and managing risks that affect my livelihood.
Ive come to appreciate how prediction markets can offer insights you just cant find elsewhere. For example, election outcomes and public events often impact my business through changes in taxes or regulations. The aggregated forecasts from prediction markets seem to cut through the noise of polls and pundits, giving me a clearer picture of what might happen. That kind of information helps me plan better, whether its adjusting inventory or preparing for policy shifts. I also think these markets let regular folks like me hedge against financial risks. If I can trade on an event contract tied to something like interest rates or economic data, it could help offset uncertainties that hit my bottom line. This isnt gambling to me. Its using research and judgment, much like any other investment I might make in stocks or commodities.
Im particularly drawn to the idea that informed trading in these markets makes the prices more accurate, which benefits everyone, not just traders. If people with real knowledge contribute, the data we all rely on gets better. I understand there are concerns about insider trading or manipulation, but I dont think the answer is to shut down or overly restrict these markets. Existing laws already ban federal employees from trading on nonpublic information, and the CFTC has tools to tackle manipulation. Why punish everyone for the actions of a few bad actors? Id urge you to focus on targeted rules instead of broad bans, especially in response to Questions 29-32 about inside information and Questions 7-14 on balancing innovation with consumer protection.
On top of that, I believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or ban prediction markets, we risk pushing this activity offshore to less safe platforms or letting other countries take the lead. Thats not in our interest, and I think your approach in Questions 33-40 about costs and benefits should consider this global perspective.
Im not blind to the risks, but I trust the CFTC can craft rules that address specific problems without throwing out the baby with the bathwater. Prediction markets have real economic purpose, and they deserve a chance to grow under smart oversight. I respectfully ask that you support proportionate regulation of prediction markets and avoid overly restrictive measures that could stifle their potential.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Jeffery Walden
