Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Daniel O'Brien, and I'm an everyday citizen from Massachusetts writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I appreciate the CFTC taking the time to gather public input before drafting rules, and I hope my perspective as a regular user can help shape a balanced approach.
I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi. These platforms give people like me a chance to engage with real-world events in a way that's both interesting and useful. I've found that prediction markets often produce forecasts that are way more accurate than polls or pundits on TV. For instance, I've seen election and economic event predictions on Kalshi line up closer to reality than what I read in the news. That kind of information isn't just helpful for traders; it benefits everyone by shedding light on what might happen next. I think that's a public good worth protecting.
What worries me is the idea of banning or over-restricting these markets. If that happens, people aren't just going to stop trading. They'll move to offshore platforms that aren't regulated at all. I've looked at some of those sites, and they feel sketchy, with no oversight or consumer protections. Keeping markets like Kalshi regulated under the CFTC's watch is a much safer option. It keeps things transparent and gives users confidence that there are rules in place to prevent fraud or manipulation.
I also believe that informed trading makes these markets better for everyone. When people bring knowledge to the table, whether it's about politics or economics, it improves price discovery. That means the odds on an event contract reflect reality more closely, which helps all participants make smarter decisions. I know the CFTC has concerns about insider trading, and I get that. But I think the answer is enforcing existing laws, not shutting down entire markets. Your questions 29 through 32 in the ANPR touch on this, and I'd argue that the benefits of informed trading outweigh the risks if proper safeguards are in place.
I'm just a regular guy who sees value in these markets, both for personal use and for the broader insights they provide. I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets rather than imposing harsh restrictions or outright bans. Let's keep these platforms safe and accessible under your oversight, so people like me can continue to participate without being pushed to riskier, unregulated spaces.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Daniel O'Brien
