Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is David Mejia, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Utah. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not an expert or a big-time trader, but I care deeply about having a voice in how our economy works, and I believe prediction markets can play a positive role in that. I'm new to these markets, but the more I learn, the more I see their value, not just for me but for all of us regular folks trying to understand economic and political events that affect our lives.
I think prediction markets are a powerful tool. I've seen how their forecasts often beat out polls or pundits when it comes to predicting elections or other big public events. That kind of information isn't just helpful for traders; it's useful for everyone, from voters to small business owners trying to plan ahead. I also believe that letting everyday people like me participate in these markets isn't a problem, it's a strength. We need more engagement with our economy, not less. If only big institutions get access, the best information stays locked away with them. Opening these markets to regular citizens makes the system fairer and the predictions sharper.
I know there are concerns about things like manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues, just like in other markets. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets doesn't solve the problem; it just pushes activity to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no oversight at all. I'd much rather see a regulated market like Kalshi, under your watch, than have people turn to shady alternatives. Plus, I don't think event contracts are gambling. They serve real purposes, like helping people hedge risks or uncover valuable price discovery. Calling them "gaming" feels like a stretch when they take just as much research and judgment as trading stocks.
I'm particularly drawn to your questions 7 through 14 on public interest and balancing innovation with consumer protection. I think the US should be a leader in financial innovation, not leave it to other countries. And on questions 15 through 22 about defining "gaming," I strongly feel these contracts aren't just bets; they have economic value. My ask is simple: focus on proportionate, targeted rules that address specific risks without broad bans. Don't shut out everyday people like me who want to learn and participate in legal, regulated markets.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I urge you to support well-regulated prediction markets that allow citizen engagement while protecting consumers through smart oversight.
Sincerely,
David Mejia
