Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Caner Demir, and I'm a software engineer based in California. I'm writing to provide my input on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on regulated prediction markets like Kalshi, I strongly support the development of proportionate, well-thought-out regulations for event contracts rather than broad restrictions or bans.
I got into prediction markets because, as a tech professional, I'm fascinated by how data and crowd wisdom can predict real-world outcomes more accurately than traditional polls or pundits. I've traded on events like election outcomes and economic indicators, and I've seen firsthand how these markets provide unique insights. This isn't gambling to me. It's a process of research and analysis, much like investing in stocks. Event contracts serve real economic purposes, whether it's hedging against policy changes that impact my freelance tech contracts or just gaining a clearer picture of future trends. I believe informed trading, even by those with strong insights, improves price discovery and benefits everyone in the market, not just traders.
I also want to stress the importance of keeping these markets legal and regulated in the US. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, provide a safe, transparent environment with consumer protections. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans prediction markets, activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms with no oversight. I've seen enough in the tech world to know that banning innovation doesn't stop it; it just pushes it out of reach of regulators. The US has a chance to lead in financial innovation here, setting a global standard for prediction markets. We shouldn't cede that advantage to other countries.
Addressing some of your specific questions, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe the CFTC can balance innovation and consumer protection by focusing on targeted rules rather than categorical bans. For Topic Area E on inside information (Questions 29-32), I think the benefits of informed trading for price discovery outweigh the risks, especially since existing laws already prohibit insider trading by federal officials and others with nonpublic information. The CFTC should use its current tools to tackle manipulation and fraud without punishing legitimate participants.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation that allows everyday people like me to participate in these markets while addressing specific risks with focused rules. Let's keep prediction markets safe, transparent, and based in the US, not drive them offshore. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Caner Demir
