Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Javier Gonzalez, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I want to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets, and I hope my perspective as someone who uses these platforms regularly can help inform your approach.
I rely on prediction markets to hedge personal and financial risks that impact my investments and day-to-day life. For instance, I trade contracts tied to economic indicators like CPI data or Federal Reserve decisions because they directly affect my portfolio and planning for things like mortgage timing or business expenses. These markets give me a way to manage uncertainty that I can't find anywhere else. The information they provide through price signals is often more accurate than what I see in news or polls, and that benefits not just me but anyone paying attention to these outcomes.
One thing Ive noticed, though, is that sometimes the data or scores on these platforms can lag, which messes with the accuracy of the market. I know youve been doing great work already, but Id urge you to focus on fixing issues like this to make sure prices reflect the most current information. Thats key to keeping these markets useful.
I also want to address a couple of points from your ANPR. On Questions 29-32 about inside information, I believe informed trading actually improves price discovery. When people with real knowledge trade, it makes the market smarter, and we all benefit from better predictions. The CFTC already has tools to tackle insider trading if its illegal or abusive, so theres no need to over-restrict these markets. And on Questions 7-14 about public interest, I worry that banning or heavily limiting prediction markets will just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms. Id rather trade on a regulated U.S. market like Kalshi, where theres oversight, than be forced to less safe venues with no protections.
Prediction markets arent gambling to me. They take research and judgment, just like any other investment. Shutting them down or over-regulating them would cut off a valuable tool for people like me who use them to navigate real-world risks. Im all for rules that prevent manipulation or fraud, but lets not throw out the good with the bad.
I respectfully ask that the CFTC support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep them accessible to everyday traders like me, and focus on targeted rules for specific risks rather than broad restrictions. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Javier Gonzalez
