Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Michael Casabuena, and I'm a USPS mailman and caregiver from California. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe that well-regulated prediction markets are valuable and should not be overly restricted or banned.
As someone who works hard every day delivering mail and caring for others, I don't have the time or resources to dig through endless news or polls to figure out what's likely to happen with big events that affect my life, like elections or economic changes. Prediction markets give me a clearer picture. The prices on these platforms often cut through the noise and provide better information than what I hear from pundits or read online. This isn't just helpful for me; it's useful for everyone, from regular folks to policymakers who need accurate data to make decisions. I think the CFTC should consider this public benefit, as raised in Questions 7 and 8 under the Public Interest section.
I also want to stress that event contracts aren't gambling. When I trade on Kalshi, I'm not just throwing money at a game of chance. I'm researching, thinking about real-world events, and making informed choices, much like people do with stocks or other investments. These markets serve a real purpose, like price discovery and helping people manage uncertainty. I urge you to look at this in Questions 15 and 16 under Listed Activities, where you ask about defining gaming versus legitimate markets. Treating these as gambling would be a mistake.
Another big concern for me is safety. I trade on a regulated platform like Kalshi because I trust that there are rules in place to protect users. If the CFTC clamps down too hard or bans these markets, people like me might turn to unregulated offshore platforms that don't have any oversight. That seems far riskier. I'd like the CFTC to think about this balance, as mentioned in Questions 7 and 9, on innovation versus consumer protection.
Finally, I believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead on something that can be so useful if done right. This ties into Questions 33 and 34 on classification and costs, where I think regulation should support growth, not stifle it. I'm not an expert, but I know that shutting down or over-regulating prediction markets would hurt regular people like me who benefit from them.
I respectfully ask that the CFTC support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Focus on targeted rules to address risks like manipulation or insider trading, but don't ban or overly restrict these platforms. They matter to me and many others.
Sincerely,
Michael Casabuena
