Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Liam Nevins, and I'm a student from New York with a keen interest in markets and public policy. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I wanted to share my perspective on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets and believe they provide unique value to individuals like me and to society as a whole.
As a student, I find prediction markets fascinating because they often produce forecasts that are more accurate than traditional polls or pundit opinions. I've seen this firsthand with election outcomes and other public events on platforms like Kalshi. The prices reflect a collective wisdom that you just can't get from a single survey or news segment. This isn't gambling, in my view. Trading on these platforms requires research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. These markets give me, and others, a chance to engage with real-world events in a meaningful way, and they provide better information for public decision-making through price discovery.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight, which makes them far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, I worry that activity will just move to less transparent, riskier venues. That would be a loss for everyone. The U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries with looser rules.
Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a few points. On Questions 7-14 about public interest, I believe prediction markets strike a balance between innovation and consumer protection when theyre properly regulated. Theyre a tool for price discovery, not a game of chance. On Questions 29-32 about inside information, I think informed trading actually improves market accuracy and benefits all participants by making prices more reliable. And while manipulation or insider trading are valid concerns, the CFTC already has strong tools to address these issues in other derivatives markets. I trust those can be adapted here without resorting to broad restrictions.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please don't ban or overly restrict them. They offer real economic value through forecasting and hedging, and they give people like me a stake in understanding the world around us. Let's keep these markets safe and accessible under CFTC oversight, not push them offshore.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Liam Nevins
