Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Aryan Narang, and I'm a trader and investor based in Illinois. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to support their growth with fair, proportionate rules rather than bans or heavy restrictions.
As someone who trades regularly, I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi. These platforms aren't just a place to speculate; they give me access to information and insights I can't find anywhere else. I've seen firsthand how prediction markets often produce more accurate forecasts than polls or pundits. Whether it's an election outcome or an economic indicator, the prices on these markets reflect a collective wisdom that's incredibly useful, not just for traders but for anyone making decisions based on future events. This kind of price discovery benefits the public, from regular folks like me to policymakers who need reliable data.
I'm also convinced that informed trading makes these markets stronger. When people with knowledge contribute to the price, it becomes a better signal for everyone. Sure, there are risks like insider trading, but those are already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to address them. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets won't stop bad actors; it will just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no oversight at all. I've looked at some of those offshore sites, and theyre far riskier than a regulated market like Kalshi. Keeping these markets legal and under CFTC supervision is the safer choice by far.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated prediction markets strike that balance by fostering innovation while keeping traders safe under CFTC rules. On Question 29, regarding inside information, I believe informed traders generally improve price discovery, and existing laws already handle misuse of nonpublic information. The focus should be on enforcement, not prohibition.
I understand concerns about manipulation or misuse, but shutting down or overly restricting these markets punishes honest participants like me. Prediction markets aren't gambling; theyre a tool for understanding the world and managing uncertainty. I respectfully ask the CFTC to adopt proportionate regulations that allow prediction markets to thrive under clear rules, ensuring they remain safe, accessible, and beneficial to all.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Aryan Narang
