Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Kristopher Galante, and Im a hobbyist trader from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Ive been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. Theyve been a game-changer for me, and I believe they serve a real purpose for many people beyond just a few big players.
Ive spent years grinding toward profitability in markets, including the stock market as a PHP developer with an analytical mindset. Ive been on SSI for most of my life, and trading is my shot at building something sustainable to live independently. Just yesterday, I hit a 70% return, though I know thats not something I can repeat every day. My approach relies on market liquidity to work. I analyze order flow, comparing adjusted prices from my model against current market prices and looping that analysis over time to spot convergence with broader market behavior. Without enough participants, my performance flattens or drops. Prediction markets need to stay accessible to regular folks like me, not just institutions, to keep that liquidity alive.
I want to stress that event contracts arent gambling. They take research, judgment, and a real understanding of the world, just like trading stocks or commodities. Im using these markets to hedge risks that matter to me, and I know others do the same for things like elections or economic data that hit their wallets. Its a legitimate tool, not a game, and it provides information you cant find in polls or news. On that note, Im glad to see the CFTC asking about the public interest in Question 7 of the ANPR. I think these markets clearly serve the public by offering unique insights and democratizing access to financial tools.
I also want to address concerns about manipulation or insider trading, especially since Questions 29 to 32 in the ANPR touch on this. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle these issues in other derivatives markets. Those same powers can apply here. Insider trading is already illegal, and federal employees or officials are barred from using nonpublic info. Shutting down or over-restricting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone else. Instead, use the existing rules and focus enforcement where its needed. And if a flagging mechanism for trades is considered, as Ive thought about for settlement, Id suggest pre- and post-settlement checks. Maybe automate fractional payments and finalize the rest by days end. I just ask that any system helps validate strategies like mine rather than boxing me out.
Ive worked hard to get to a point of meaningful returns. Please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets so people like me can keep building toward independence. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Kristopher Galante
