Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ashlyn Iwinski, and Im a small business owner from Nevada. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im new to prediction markets, but Ive been learning about them, and I strongly support their development under fair and reasonable regulation. As someone who runs a business, I value tools that help me make informed decisions, and I believe these markets can do that for me and many others.
I care deeply about the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets arent just a niche hobby; they offer unique insights that I cant get from news or polls. Ive seen how inaccurate forecasts on elections or public events can mislead people, and from what Ive read, prediction markets often do a better job of cutting through the noise. Academic research backs this up, showing how these markets aggregate information in a transparent way. That kind of data could help me anticipate policy changes or economic shifts that affect my business, like new regulations or tax laws.
I also want to stress that I dont see event contracts as gambling. They serve real economic purposes, much like other investments I make to protect my business. Deciding to trade on an event outcome takes research and judgment, not luck. Its about understanding the world around me, just as I do when I plan inventory or pricing based on market trends. Labeling this as gambling feels like a misstep to me.
On the topic of safety, Id rather see platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, thrive than push people toward unregulated offshore sites. If you over-restrict or ban these markets, thats where activity will go, and thats far riskier for everyone. Im glad the CFTC is asking for input on balancing innovation with consumer protection, as in your questions 7 through 14 under the Public Interest section. My take is simple: regulate to prevent fraud and manipulation, but dont shut down a useful tool just because its new.
I also appreciate the CFTC asking about accurate forecasting in question 10. I believe prediction markets can be a public good by providing better data on elections and other events. Lets not lose that by over-regulating. My ask is straightforward. Please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Focus on targeted rules to address specific risks, and dont ban or overly restrict them. I want to see these markets grow in a way thats safe and accessible for people like me.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Ashlyn Iwinski
