Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Parker Pogue, and I'm a trader and investor based in Utah. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing to share my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me, and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to regulate them proportionately without imposing overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
As a trader, I rely on accurate information to make informed decisions. Prediction markets have consistently outperformed polls and pundits when it comes to forecasting elections and other public events. I've seen firsthand how the aggregated wisdom of many participants, putting real money on the line, produces insights you can't get anywhere else. This isn't just helpful for traders; its valuable for the public, media, and even policymakers who need reliable data to make decisions. Beyond forecasting, I use these markets to hedge personal financial risks tied to economic or political outcomes, like changes in policy that could impact my investments. It's a practical tool, not a game.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi. Platforms under CFTC oversight are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If we over-restrict or ban these markets, activity will just move to less transparent venues where there's no protection for participants. The US should lead in financial innovation, not cede ground to other countries. Regulated markets ensure accountability, and I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle issues like manipulation and insider trading. There's no need for new blanket prohibitions when existing laws can address bad actors without punishing everyone else.
On the topic of classification, I strongly feel event contracts shouldn't be labeled as gaming. They serve legitimate economic purposes like hedging and price discovery, much like trading stocks or commodities. Research from economists backs this up, showing how prediction markets improve information transparency. Id urge the CFTC to consider these points, especially in relation to Questions 7 and 8 on public interest and innovation, and Questions 15 and 16 on defining gaming versus legitimate markets. Lets focus on specific risks with targeted rules, not broad bans.
Prediction markets are a powerful tool for better decision-making and risk management. I ask the CFTC to support their growth with fair, balanced regulation that protects participants while preserving access for everyday traders like me. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Parker Pogue
