Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Christopher Muller, and I'm a software engineer based in California. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States, and I urge the CFTC to adopt a balanced approach that allows innovation while addressing real risks.
I got into prediction markets because, frankly, I was tired of relying on pundits and polls that often get things wrong. Working in tech, I value data-driven insights, and Ive found that platforms like Kalshi provide forecasts on elections, economic indicators, and other events that are consistently more accurate than traditional sources. This isnt just helpful for me as a trader; its valuable information for anyone making decisions, whether its a business planning around policy changes or a citizen trying to understand the world. I believe this price discovery process, which the CFTC asks about in Questions 7 and 8 under Public Interest, is a public good that shouldnt be stifled.
I also want to emphasize that regulated markets are the way to go. I trade on Kalshi because its a CFTC-registered platform with clear rules and oversight. If the CFTC bans or overly restricts these markets, people like me wont just stop trading; well get pushed to unregulated offshore platforms with no consumer protections. Thats a worse outcome for everyone. Addressing Questions 9 and 10 on balancing innovation and protection, I think the answer lies in strong regulation, not prohibition. Keep us in safe, transparent markets where the CFTC can monitor activity.
Another concern I have is the idea of classifying event contracts as gaming, which comes up in Questions 15 through 17 under Listed Activities. I dont see this as gambling at all. Trading on prediction markets requires research and judgment, just like investing in stocks or futures. It serves real economic purposes, like hedging risks tied to political or economic events that affect my life and work. Plus, informed trading, as discussed in Questions 29 and 30 on inside information, actually improves price accuracy. It benefits all participants by making the market a better source of truth, as long as manipulation is policed with the tools the CFTC already has.
Im not blind to the risks. Manipulation and insider trading are real concerns, but shutting down entire markets isnt the fix. Punish the bad actors, not the rest of us who are trading in good faith. I urge the CFTC to craft rules that support prediction markets while targeting specific harms with proportionate measures. Lets keep the U.S. as a leader in financial innovation and ensure regular people like me can participate in legal, regulated platforms.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Christopher Muller
