Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Anthony Nolen, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I believe these markets are incredibly valuable. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets rather than banning or over-restricting them.
I got into prediction markets because I wanted better information about things that affect my life, like elections and other public events. Honestly, the forecasts on these platforms have been way more accurate than what I see from polls or pundits on TV. That kind of insight isn't just helpful for me as a trader; it's useful for everyone who wants to understand what's really likely to happen. These markets pull together all sorts of knowledge from regular people like me, and that makes the prices a unique source of truth. I also see this as a freedom issue. I should be able to participate in legal, regulated markets without being shut out. Calling event contracts "gaming" feels wrong to me. This isn't gambling; it's about research and judgment, much like trading stocks. These contracts serve real purposes, like helping people hedge risks or make informed decisions.
I'm also worried about what happens if the CFTC over-restricts these markets. I've traded on offshore platforms like Polymarket, and I can tell you they're not nearly as safe or transparent as a regulated market like Kalshi. If you ban or limit prediction markets here, you're just pushing people like me to riskier, unregulated spaces. That's not protecting consumers; it's the opposite. Regulation done right keeps us safe and keeps the US leading in financial innovation. We shouldn't be handing this space over to other countries. On a related note, I think informed trading actually helps everyone. When people with knowledge trade, the prices get sharper, and that benefits all participants by making the market a better tool for forecasting.
I noticed a few questions in the ANPR that tie into my concerns. For instance, Question 7 under Public Interest asks about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I think regulated markets are the answer, not bans. Question 15 under Listed Activities talks about defining gaming versus legitimate markets. I strongly believe event contracts aren't gaming; they have economic value. And Question 29 on Inside Information asks if informed traders help price discovery. From my experience, they absolutely do.
I hope the CFTC will support proportionate regulation that lets prediction markets thrive while addressing real risks with targeted rules. Don't shut down something so useful to people like me. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Anthony Nolen
