Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Thea de Lourenco, and I'm a full-time trader and investor based in California. I'm writing to express my strong support for proportionate regulation of prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I want to share why I believe these markets are valuable and why the CFTC should regulate them sensibly without banning or over-restricting them.
I have a degree in Foreign Affairs and International Economics, and I've always wanted to get into day trading. Honestly, I found most trading platforms intimidating at first. Then I started trading financial markets on Kalshi, from S&P to oil to Bitcoin. It was a game-changer. It opened up the world of financial day trading to me in a way that felt accessible, and now I do it full-time on Kalshi and other platforms. I prefer Kalshi over something like Polymarket because it's regulated here in the US, and that gives me confidence my trades are safer and more transparent.
Prediction markets aren't just a hobby for me. They're a tool to hedge real risks. Whether it's an election outcome that could impact my taxes or a Fed decision that might affect my investments, these markets let me manage uncertainty in a way I can't do anywhere else. I also believe they serve a legitimate economic purpose, not gambling. Trading on Kalshi takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. Labeling event contracts as "gaming" feels like a misstep to me. They help with price discovery too. When informed traders participate, the prices get more accurate, and that benefits everyone, not just those of us trading.
I also worry about what happens if the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets. I've seen unregulated offshore platforms, and I don't trust them. If the US pushes activity offshore by being too strict, traders like me lose the protections of a regulated market like Kalshi. Plus, the US should be leading in financial innovation. We shouldn't cede that ground to other countries. I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has strong tools to handle those issues in other derivatives markets. Use those tools here instead of punishing everyone with broad restrictions.
I'm particularly interested in your questions 7 and 8 on public interest and innovation, as well as questions 15 and 16 on defining gaming versus legitimate markets. I urge you to recognize the economic value of event contracts and focus on targeted rules for specific risks rather than categorical bans. Regulated markets are the way to go.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I hope the CFTC will support well-regulated prediction markets that allow everyday traders like me to participate safely and contribute to better price discovery.
Sincerely,
Thea de Lourenco
