Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Michael LoCicero, and I'm just a regular guy from Wisconsin who wants to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a lawyer or a finance expert, just someone who has been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now. I believe in the value of these markets, and Im worried about the idea of banning or over-restricting them. I hope youll consider my perspective.
I support prediction markets because they give people like me a chance to participate in something thats legal and regulated, and honestly, pretty useful. Ive used Kalshi to make trades on things like election outcomes or economic data releases, and its not just a game to me. It takes research and thought, much like investing in stocks. These event contracts arent gambling in my view. They serve a real purpose, whether its helping me think through risks that affect my life or just getting a better sense of what might happen in the world. Calling this gaming feels wrong when its so tied to real-world events and decisions.
What really concerns me is the idea of pushing these markets underground. Platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC rules, which means theres oversight and accountability. I feel safer trading there than I would on some offshore site with no rules at all. If prediction markets get banned or overly restricted, people arent going to stop trading. Theyll just go to unregulated platforms outside the US, where theres no protection if something goes wrong. That seems like the opposite of what regulation should do. I think the CFTC can address risks without throwing out the whole concept.
I noticed in your questions, especially around numbers 15 to 22 on listed activities, that theres a discussion about defining gaming versus legitimate markets. Id urge you to see event contracts as legitimate economic tools, not gambling. And in questions 7 to 14 on public interest, I think the balance should lean toward keeping regulated access open for regular folks like me, while still tackling any bad actors with the tools you already have.
Im not saying there arent concerns. I get that insider trading or manipulation could be issues, but those are already illegal, right? Focus on enforcing those laws instead of shutting down markets that benefit people who play by the rules. Please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban them or make it so hard to participate that only big players or offshore sites win. Lets keep this fair and safe for everyone.
Thank you for reading my comment.
Sincerely,
Michael LoCicero
