Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Aas Aasas, and I'm a trader and investor based in New York. I've been in the markets for a while now, making decisions based on research and analysis, and I've used prediction markets a few times to gain insights and hedge risks. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in the United States.
I believe prediction markets offer unique value that you can't find elsewhere. The prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced information, often more accurate than polls or expert opinions. I've seen firsthand how these platforms can help me make better decisions, whether it's understanding political outcomes or economic trends. This isn't just good for traders like me; it's good for society when better information is out there for everyone. Plus, I don't see this as gambling. It takes serious research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities.
What really concerns me is the risk of over-restriction or outright bans. I've noticed that regulated platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, provide a safe and transparent environment to trade event contracts. That's a stark contrast to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no accountability. If we ban or overly restrict prediction markets here, we're just pushing activity to those less safe venues. That doesn't protect anyone; it makes things worse. I strongly believe the US should lead in financial innovation, not cede ground to other countries. We're the hub of global finance, and we should be setting the standard for how these markets operate.
I'm also impressed by the academic research backing prediction markets. Studies have shown they aggregate information efficiently, often outperforming traditional forecasting methods. This isn't just theory; it's data we can rely on. Transparency matters to me as a trader, and I think the CFTC should prioritize rules that keep markets open and fair while encouraging that kind of data-driven insight.
On specific questions in the ANPR, I want to address Question 7 under Public Interest. I believe the balance between innovation and consumer protection lies in regulation, not prohibition. Targeted rules can address risks like manipulation or insider trading without shutting down the entire market. And to Question 29 on inside information, I think informed traders often improve price discovery, but existing laws against insider trading should be enforced rigorously to keep things fair.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't let the fear of a few bad actors punish the rest of us or drive innovation offshore. Craft rules that protect consumers while allowing these valuable tools to thrive. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Aas Aasas
