Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Logan Hancock, and I'm a trader and investor from Indiana. I run a small business, and I've been able to make a living in part because of platforms like Kalshi, where I actively trade on prediction markets. I'm writing to express my strong support for proportionate regulation of prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I want to share why I think the CFTC should regulate them thoughtfully instead of banning or over-restricting them.
Prediction markets aren't just a hobby for me; they're a tool. I use platforms like Kalshi to hedge risks that affect my small business, like potential policy changes or economic shifts tied to elections and other public events. The prices on these markets often give me insights I can't get from polls or news pundits. I've seen firsthand how prediction markets consistently forecast outcomes more accurately than traditional sources. That kind of information helps me make better decisions, and I know it could help policymakers and the public too if these markets are allowed to thrive.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are just gambling. They're not. Trading on these markets takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. Classifying them as "gaming" would be a mistake when they serve real economic purposes like hedging and price discovery. On this point, Id like to address Question 15 from your ANPR about defining gaming versus legitimate markets. These contracts aren't about luck; they're about informed analysis of real-world events, and they should be treated as such.
Another concern I have is what happens if these markets are over-restricted or banned. I've traded on Kalshi because it's regulated and safe. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, people like me will be pushed to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight or consumer protection. I'd urge you to consider Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. Regulated markets are the answer, not prohibition, which just drives activity into riskier spaces.
Finally, I believe the US should lead in financial innovation. We shouldn't cede ground to other countries by stifling prediction markets. They give regular folks like me a chance to participate in legal, regulated spaces and access better information. Im asking the CFTC to create rules that protect consumers without shutting down these valuable tools. Look at the academic research; it backs up how prediction markets improve forecasting and transparency. Let's build on that.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets and hope the CFTC will too.
Sincerely,
Logan Hancock
