Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Edward Zamora, and I'm a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I've been following their growth with interest, and I strongly support their development under fair and balanced regulation. I believe these markets offer unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I want to urge the CFTC to regulate them proportionately without imposing harsh bans or restrictions.
As someone who keeps up with elections and public events, I've noticed how often polls and pundits get things wrong. Prediction markets, on the other hand, seem to cut through the noise and provide forecasts that are consistently more accurate. That kind of information isn't just helpful for traders; it's valuable for everyone trying to understand what's really happening. I also appreciate that these markets let regular folks like me participate in a legal, regulated space. It's not about gambling, it's about using research and judgment to make informed decisions, much like any other investment. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels off to me. They serve real purposes, like helping people and businesses hedge against risks tied to political or economic changes.
I'm also concerned about the idea of over-restricting these markets. Banning or heavily limiting them won't stop people from participating; it will just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms that are far less safe. I'd much rather see markets like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, thrive here in the U.S. This country should be leading the way in financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other nations. Plus, I understand the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle issues like manipulation and insider trading. Use those existing powers instead of creating broad categorical bans that punish everyone. And honestly, when informed traders participate, doesn't that make the prices more accurate for all of us? That benefits the whole market.
I was looking through the questions in the ANPR, and a few stood out to me. For Question 7 under Public Interest, I think prediction markets clearly serve the public good through better forecasting and risk management. On Question 15 about Listed Activities, I don't believe these contracts should be seen as gaming; they have legitimate economic uses. And for Question 29 on Inside Information, I feel that informed trading often improves price discovery, as long as it's within legal bounds.
I urge the CFTC to support prediction markets with targeted, fair rules that address specific risks without shutting down the whole industry. Let's keep these markets safe, regulated, and accessible to everyday Americans like me.
Sincerely,
Edward Zamora
