Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Paul Parker, and I'm an everyday citizen from Louisiana writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will create rules that allow these markets to thrive without over-restricting them.
One of the main reasons I'm so passionate about prediction markets is the data and transparency they offer. I've seen firsthand how the prices on these platforms often predict outcomes better than polls or pundits on TV. Whether it's an election result or an economic indicator, the aggregated information from traders just cuts through the noise. This isn't just helpful for those of us who trade. It's valuable for everyone, from journalists to policymakers, who need accurate forecasts to make informed decisions. I often check prediction market data to get a clearer picture of what's likely to happen, and I'm consistently impressed by how on-point it can be compared to so-called expert opinions.
I also want to push back on the idea that these markets are just gambling. Trading on Kalshi isn't a game of chance for me. It takes research and careful thought, much like investing in stocks. I read up on issues, weigh the odds, and make decisions based on real-world information. Plus, these markets let regular folks like me have a stake in understanding public events. That feels fair and democratic, not risky or reckless. If only big institutions could participate, all that valuable information would stay locked away with them.
I understand there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I appreciate the CFTC looking into those risks. But I don't think the answer is to ban or overly restrict prediction markets. Those bad behaviors are already illegal, and the CFTC has the power to enforce against them. Shutting down these platforms to stop a few bad actors would hurt honest traders like me and push activity to unregulated offshore sites, which seems worse.
Regarding some of your specific questions, like those in the Public Interest section (Questions 7-14), I believe prediction markets do serve the public good by improving price discovery and transparency. Academic research backs this up, showing how these markets aggregate information efficiently. I'd urge you to consider those studies when weighing innovation against consumer protection.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please don't impose broad bans or restrictions that would limit access for everyday people like me. Focus on targeted rules to address specific risks while letting these valuable tools continue to grow. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Paul Parker
