Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Agbor Ferderick, and I'm a trader and investor based in Arizona. I'm writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets as outlined in the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe these markets provide unique value that deserves to be protected, not overly restricted.
As someone who spends a lot of time analyzing markets and making informed decisions, I can tell you that prediction markets offer something you just can't get from polls or pundits. The prices on these platforms reflect real-time, crowd-sourced information that often turns out to be more accurate than traditional forecasts. I've seen this firsthand. For example, during the last election cycle, I relied on Kalshi's market data to gauge outcomes that affected my investment strategy. The predictions were sharper than anything I saw on cable news or in opinion columns. This isn't just useful for traders like me; it's valuable for anyone making decisions, whether that's a business owner, a policy analyst, or just a regular citizen trying to understand the world.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get why those are issues. But banning or over-regulating these markets isn't the answer. The CFTC already has tools to tackle fraud and manipulation in other derivatives markets. Use those same tools here. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few bad actors would be like closing the stock market because of insider trading scandals. It punishes everyone else whos playing by the rules and benefiting from the system. Plus, regulated markets like Kalshi are far safer than pushing activity to offshore platforms with no oversight.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, regarding public interest, I believe prediction markets serve the public by improving price discovery and providing better information for decision-making. On Question 11, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the CFTC should focus on targeted rules for specific risks rather than broad bans that stifle innovation. These markets democratize access to information, and thats a good thing.
Prediction markets aren't gambling. They take research and judgment, just like any other investment. I urge the CFTC to regulate them in a way that preserves their benefits while addressing legitimate risks. Please support proportionate regulation that allows these markets to thrive and continue providing valuable insights to people like me and to society at large.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Agbor Ferderick
