Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Maria Miranda, and I'm a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not an expert or a big investor, just someone who believes in the value of fair, legal markets where everyday people like me can participate. I'm new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their growth under sensible regulation, and I appreciate the chance to weigh in.
I think prediction markets are important because they help people and businesses manage real risks in their lives. For example, a small business owner might use these markets to hedge against policy changes after an election that could impact their taxes or operations. Even someone like me could see the value in protecting against economic shifts, like inflation numbers affecting rent or grocery costs. This isn't gambling, it's a practical tool, much like buying insurance for your car or home. I believe everyone should have the freedom to participate in these legal, regulated spaces without being shut out by overly strict rules.
Another reason I support these markets is that regulated platforms, like Kalshi, are so much safer than unregulated offshore ones. If we ban or over-restrict prediction markets here, people won't just stop trading, they'll go to sketchy foreign sites with no oversight. That puts everyday users at risk of fraud or losing their money with no recourse. Keeping these markets regulated in the U.S. means we can have rules in place to protect participants while still allowing innovation.
Lastly, I've read that prediction markets often produce forecasts that are more accurate than polls or pundits. That kind of information is valuable to everyone, not just traders. If regular folks like me can take part, it makes the data even better by including more perspectives. I think that's a public good worth supporting. Looking at the questions in your notice, especially numbers 7 and 8 under Public Interest, I believe the CFTC should balance innovation with protection by focusing on strong oversight rather than broad bans. And for question 15 on Listed Activities, I don't think these markets should be labeled as gaming when they serve real economic purposes.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please don't impose rules that would effectively ban them or limit access for ordinary citizens. Let's keep these markets safe, fair, and open to all who want to participate under clear guidelines. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Maria Miranda
