Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ryan Jensen, and I'm a healthcare professional from Indiana. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I want to share why I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets and believe the CFTC should adopt a balanced, proportionate approach to their oversight.
As someone working in healthcare, I often face uncertainties that affect my personal and professional life, from policy changes to economic shifts. Prediction markets have been a valuable tool for me to gain insights that I can't find in polls or pundit commentary. I've seen firsthand how these markets often predict outcomes more accurately than traditional sources. That kind of information isn't just helpful for traders like me; it benefits everyone by improving public decision-making and price discovery. I also use these markets to hedge against real risks, like potential policy changes that could impact healthcare costs or my small investments. This isn't gambling. It takes research and judgment, much like any other investment I make.
Im particularly concerned about the idea of over-restricting or banning these markets. I've traded on regulated platforms like Kalshi, and I can tell you they feel safe and transparent. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, I worry that activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms where there are no protections. The U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not pushing it away to other countries. We have a chance to set the standard here, and I hope we take it.
Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a few points. On Questions 7-14 about public interest, I believe prediction markets serve a clear public good through better forecasting and risk management. They aren't gaming; they have legitimate economic purposes, as Ive experienced myself. On Questions 29-32 about inside information, I think informed trading actually improves price discovery and helps everyone in the market. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. Those same tools can work here without broad bans. And on Questions 15-22 about listed activities, I urge you not to classify event contracts as gambling. Theyre a different animal, tied to real-world outcomes and real economic needs.
I understand there are concerns about potential misuse, but banning or overly restricting these markets punishes law-abiding participants like me. The answer is targeted regulation that addresses specific risks, not sweeping prohibitions. I respectfully ask the CFTC to support proportionate rules that allow prediction markets to thrive under clear oversight, ensuring access for everyday people while maintaining market integrity.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Ryan Jensen
