Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jameal Smith, and I'm a trader and investor from Arkansas. I also run a small business here, and Im writing to share my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Ive been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and Ive seen firsthand how valuable these markets are, not just for me but for everyone who needs better information to make decisions.
I rely on prediction markets because they give me insights I cant find anywhere else. Polls and pundits often miss the mark, swayed by bias or just bad data, but prediction markets cut through the noise. They aggregate what people actually think, based on where theyre willing to put their money. Ive used these forecasts to help guide decisions for my small business, especially when it comes to understanding economic trends or political outcomes that might impact my costs or regulations. For instance, trading on election outcomes has helped me prepare for potential policy shifts that affect my bottom line. Its not gambling, its research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I get why thats a worry. But those issues are already illegal, right? The CFTC has tools to go after bad actors, and shutting down entire markets to stop a few cheaters feels like punishing the rest of us who play by the rules. Plus, banning these markets would just push trading to unregulated offshore platforms, which seems way riskier. Id rather see the CFTC focus on strong oversight of platforms like Kalshi, where I trade, to keep things fair and transparent.
Specifically, on your questions about public interest (Questions 7-14), I strongly believe prediction markets serve a vital purpose in price discovery and better forecasting. Theyre not just for traders like me, they help the public, media, and even policymakers get a clearer picture of whats likely to happen. Look at how often these markets have outperformed traditional polls. Thats a public good, and it shouldnt be stifled by over-restrictive rules.
Im also glad to see you asking about innovation versus consumer protection (Question 8). I think you can balance both by setting clear rules without broad bans. Let regular folks like me keep participating, because when only big institutions have access, the information stays locked up with them. Democratized access makes the data better for everyone.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Keep them open, safe, and fair for people like me who use them to make informed decisions. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Jameal Smith
