Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Stephen Maynus, and I'm a trader and investor based in Missouri. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets, and I want to share why I think theyre valuable and why the CFTC should focus on proportionate regulation instead of bans or heavy restrictions.
As a trader, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets provide information you just cant get elsewhere. Their forecasts on elections and public events are often more accurate than polls or pundits. Ive used these insights to make better decisions, not just in trading but in understanding the world around me. This isnt just good for me; its good for everyone when better information is out there for public decision-making. Fair, current, and accurate price discovery matters, especially on issues that influence our economy.
I also believe that event contracts arent gambling. They serve real economic purposes like hedging and price discovery. When I trade on Kalshi, Im putting in research and judgment, just like I do with stocks or commodities. Calling this gaming feels like a misunderstanding of what these markets do. Plus, regulated platforms like Kalshi are far safer than unregulated offshore sites. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts these markets, activity will just move to less safe venues. Id rather see the US lead in financial innovation than push this industry to other countries.
Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to address a couple from Topic Area B on Public Interest, like Question 7 about balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think the CFTC can protect consumers with targeted rules on manipulation or insider trading without stifling innovation. Informed trading actually helps price discovery, as asked in Topic Area E, Question 29. It benefits all participants by making prices more accurate. Broad categorical bans, as discussed in Topic Area D, arent the answer. Proportionate regulation that tackles specific risks makes more sense.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to handle those issues in other markets. Use those tools here too, instead of punishing everyone by shutting down or over-restricting prediction markets. Freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like these is important to me and to many others who want a stake in understanding and forecasting the events that shape our lives.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Lets keep this innovation alive and safe in the US.
Sincerely,
Stephen Maynus
